A Consistent Predictor of Change in the Number of Pubs across Areas of London
Number of pubs in 2001 is a consistent negative predictor of change in the number of pubs across both boroughs and wards
Further to three previous posts, here I present evidence that the initial number of pubs and bars (i.e., the number in 2001) predicts decline in the number of pubs and bars across both boroughs (2001–2015) and wards (2001–2011).
The chart below plots change in the absolute number of pubs and bars 2001–2015 against number of pubs and bars in 2001 at the borough level, with and without Westminster (an outlier). In both cases, the correlation is strong and negative (r = –.58, p < 0.001; r = –.51, p = 0.003).
The table below shows estimates from linear models of change in the number of pubs and bars at the borough level. Number of pubs and bars in 2001 is a significant predictor in all models except 8, where the coefficient does not reach significance.
The chart below plots change in the absolute number of pubs and bars 2001–2011 against number of pubs and bars in 2001 at the ward level, with and without the West End (an outlier). In both cases, the correlation is strong and negative (r = –.39, p < 0.001; r = –.50, p < 0.001).
The table below shows estimates from linear models of change in the number of pubs and bars at the ward level. Number of pubs and bars in 2001 is a significant negative predictor in all 4 models.
These results imply that, since 2001, the number of pubs and bars has declined more in areas of London that initially had more pubs and bars. I can think of two possible explanations.
First, people living in peripheral areas have become less willing to travel into the centre of London to frequent pubs, possibly because transport costs have increased as a proportion disposable incomes. Second, in areas that initially had more pubs and bars, there was more competition, and therefore a greater number of marginal establishments. Consequently, when overall demand for pubs declined, more of the establishments in these areas went out of business.
