Ethnicity, not Age, Was the Biggest Dividing Line at the General Election

The ethnicity gap in voting was larger than the age gap; 82 percent of British Muslims voted Labour; 61 percent of British Jews voted Tory

Lord Ashcroft published a large poll of 14,000 people the day after the general election. The table below shows the percentage of people in different socio-demographic categories who voted Tory versus Labour, according to Lord Ashcroft’s data:

The education gaps were small (2–9 percentage points). The social grade gaps were moderate (9–21 percentage points). The public/private gaps were also moderate (4–18 percentage points). The age gaps were large (35–48 percentage points).

The ethnicity gaps, however, were gigantic. Blacks were nearly 70 percentage points more likely to vote Labour. Pakistanis and Bangladeshis were nearly 80 percentage points more likely to vote Labour. And Chinese were nearly 15 percentage points more likely to vote Tory.

The religion gaps were also very large. Muslims were over 70 percentage points more likely to vote Labour. Jews were nearly 40 percentage points more likely to vote Tory, and Christians were 20 percentage points more likely to vote Tory.

Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Blacks have higher poverty rates than Indians and Whites, so the ethnicity gaps in voting are likely to represent both a poverty effect and a pure ethnicity effect.

Overall, those in the lowest social grade were only 9 percentage points more likely to vote Labour, which suggests that social grade interacts with ethnicity. Whites in the lowest social grade were probably about evenly split between Labour and the Tories, whereas non-whites in the lowest social grade voted overwhelmingly for Labour.